Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

Anyu Liu; Laura Vici; Vicente Ramos; Sauveur Giannoni; Adam Blake

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182

Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

Anyu Liu, Laura Vici, Vicente Ramos, Sauveur Giannoni, Adam Blake

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

85 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

Original language	English
Article number	103182
Journal	Annals of Tourism Research
Volume	88
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
Publication status	Published - May 2021
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Composite index
COVID-19
Judgmental forecast
Tourism demand forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Development
Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

More information

10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182

Cite this

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abstract = "In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.",

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AU - Blake, Adam

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AB - In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

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DO - 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182

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JO - Annals of Tourism Research

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ER -

Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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