Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

Anyu Liu, Laura Vici, Vicente Ramos, Sauveur Giannoni, Adam Blake

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

34 Citations (Scopus)


In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103182
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Publication statusPublished - May 2021
Externally publishedYes


  • Composite index
  • COVID-19
  • Judgmental forecast
  • Tourism demand forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management


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