Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

Richard T.R. Qiu; Doris Chenguang Wu; Vincent Dropsy; Sylvain Petit; Stephen Pratt; Yasuo Ohe

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155

Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

Richard T.R. Qiu, Doris Chenguang Wu, Vincent Dropsy, Sylvain Petit, Stephen Pratt, Yasuo Ohe

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

78 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%–70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

Original language	English
Article number	103155
Journal	Annals of Tourism Research
Volume	88
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155
Publication status	Published - May 2021
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

COVID-19
Judgmental-adjusted forecasting
Recovery scenarios
Stacking models
Tourism forecasting competition

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Development
Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

More information

10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155

Cite this

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title = "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team",

abstract = "It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%–70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.",

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AU - Qiu, Richard T.R.

AU - Wu, Doris Chenguang

AU - Dropsy, Vincent

AU - Petit, Sylvain

AU - Pratt, Stephen

AU - Ohe, Yasuo

PY - 2021/5

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AB - It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%–70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

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KW - Recovery scenarios

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KW - Tourism forecasting competition

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Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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