Use of fuzzy fault tree analysis and noisy-or gate bayesian network for navigational risk assessment in qingzhou port

C. Zhao, B. Wu, T. L. Yip, J. Lv

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

Abstract

Collisions and groundings account for more than 80% among all types of maritime accidents, and risk assessment is an essential step in the formal safety assessment. This paper proposes a method based on fuzzy fault tree analysis and Noisy-OR gate Bayesian network for navigational risk assessment. First, a fault tree model was established with historical data, and the probability of basic events is calculated using fuzzy sets. Then, the Noisy-OR gate is utilized to determine the conditional probability of related nodes and obtain the probability distribution of the consequences in the Bayesian network. Finally, this proposed method is applied to Qinzhou Port. From sensitivity analysis, several predominant influencing factors are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequence is sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred. Consequently, this paper provides a practical and reasonable method for risk assessment for navigational accidents.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)765-771
Number of pages7
JournalTransNav
Volume15
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oceanography
  • Transportation
  • Ocean Engineering

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