Transmission Dynamics of Monkeypox Virus in Nigeria during the Current COVID-19 Pandemic and Estimation of Effective Reproduction Number

Salihu Sabiu Musa, Zainab Umar Abdullahi, Shi Zhao, Umar Muhammad Bello, Nafiu Hussaini, Abdulrazaq Garba Habib, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


Monkeypox virus (MPXV) continues to pose severe threats to global public health, especially in non-endemic areas. Like all other regions, Africa faces potential public health crises due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks (such as Lassa fever and malaria) that have devastated the region and overwhelmed the healthcare systems. Owing to the recent surge in the MPXV and other infections, the COVID-19-control efforts could deteriorate and further worsen. This study discusses the potential emergencies of MPXV transmission during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize some of the underlying drivers that possibly resulted in an increase in rodent-to-human interaction, such as the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact and other human behavioral or environmental factors. Furthermore, we estimate the MPXV time-varying effective reproduction number ((Formula presented.)) based on case notification in Nigeria. We find that (Formula presented.) reached a peak in 2022 with a mean of 1.924 (95% CrI: 1.455, 2.485) and a median of 1.921 (95% CrI: 1.450, 2.482). We argue that the real-time monitoring of (Formula presented.) is practical and can give public health authorities crucial data for circumstantial awareness and strategy recalibration. We also emphasize the need to improve awareness programs and the provision of adequate health care resources to suppress the outbreaks. These could also help to increase the reporting rate and, in turn, prevent large community transmission of the MPXV in Nigeria and beyond.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2153
Pages (from-to)1-9
Number of pages9
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2022


  • COVID-19
  • effective reproduction number
  • epidemic
  • monkeypox virus
  • public health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology
  • Pharmacology
  • Drug Discovery
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Pharmacology (medical)


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