Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic with combined effects of relapse, reinfection and environmental contribution: A modeling analysis

Salihu S. Musa, Abdullahi Yusuf, Shi Zhao, Zainab U. Abdullahi, Hammoda Abu-Odah, Farouk Tijjani Saad, Lukman Adamu, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

Abstract

Reinfection and reactivation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have recently raised public health pressing concerns in the fight against the current pandemic globally. In this study, we propose a new dynamic model to study the transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The model incorporates possible relapse, reinfection and environmental contribution to assess the combined effects on the overall transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model's local asymptotic stability is analyzed qualitatively. We derive the formula for the basic reproduction number (R0) and final size epidemic relation, which are vital epidemiological quantities that are used to reveal disease transmission status and guide control strategies. Furthermore, the model is validated using the COVID-19 reported situations in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is examined by implementing a partial rank correlation coefficient technique to obtain the ultimate rank model parameters to control or mitigate the pandemic effectively. Finally, we employ a standard Euler technique for numerical simulations of the model to elucidate the influence of some crucial parameters on the overall transmission dynamics. Our results highlight that contact rate, hospitalization rate, and reactivation rate are the fundamental parameters that need particular emphasis for the prevention, mitigation and control.

Original languageEnglish
Article number105653
JournalResults in Physics
Volume38
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2022

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Epidemic model
  • Pandemic
  • Reactivation
  • Reinfection
  • Reproduction number

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

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