Transforming community solar initiatives in emerging markets: A long-term economic assessment and implementation strategies

Community solar (CS) projects are attracting increasing attention as effective responses to climate change and energy transition. However, the economic viability of CS projects for key stakeholders (e.g., developers and customers) remains uncertain, especially in emerging markets. To address this challenge, this study proposes a new business model and a customized financial model for CS projects in nascent markets (e.g., Hong Kong) using the life cycle analysis method. The proposed model facilitates a comprehensive evaluation of electricity pricing and subscription rates under dynamic market conditions. The findings reveal that Hong Kong's current market conditions impede the financial viability of CS projects, but its future conditions may offer potential feasibility. The study further identifies a minimum subscription rate of approximately 75% as necessary for ensuring mutual benefits for both developers and subscribers in the future market. Sensitivity analysis underscores the significant influence of upfront installation costs on overall project costs and the sensitivity of residential subscriber payments on project revenues. The study contributes a new business model, a financial model, and strategic insights into electricity pricing and subscription rates in emerging markets, thereby offering practical guidance for policymakers, investors, and other stakeholders committed to the long-term development of sustainable CS projects.