Tourism forecasting: The general-to-specific approach

Haiyan Song, Stephen F. Witt

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

98 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The general-to-specific approach to econometric modeling and forecasting has a clear strategy in model specification, estimation, and selection and is demonstrated in the context of international tourism demand. A general autoregressive distributed lag model is reduced to various specific models by imposing parameter restrictions, and model selection is based on restriction tests, consistency with economic theory, and diagnostic statistics. The models are estimated using data on inbound tourism to South Korea from its four major generating countries: Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Statistical tests show that a unique model specification across origin countries is not appropriate.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)65-74
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Volume42
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2003
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Econometric model
  • Forecast accuracy
  • General to specific
  • Restriction tests
  • Specific to general

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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