Tourism demand modelling and forecasting-A review of recent research

Haiyan Song, Gang Li

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

802 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events' impact assessment and risk forecasting.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)203-220
Number of pages18
JournalTourism Management
Volume29
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2008

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Modelling
  • Tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management
  • Strategy and Management

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