Tourism demand modelling and forecasting

Haiyan Song, Wei Guo

Research output: Chapter in book / Conference proceedingChapter in an edited book (as author)Academic researchpeer-review


This chapter provides an overview of the recent developments in tourism demand modelling and forecasting since the 1990s. While a wide range of forecasting models is available for tourism demand forecasting, tourism managers should use models that are based on solid economic theories and provide reliable forecasts. In addition, this chapter suggests that in addition to forecasting error magnitude, directional change errors and turning point forecasting should be studied. Moreover, since no single model consistently generates superior forecasts across all situations, combining the forecasts generated from different forecasting methods improves tourism demand forecasting accuracy.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTourism Management
Subtitle of host publicationAnalysis, Behaviour and Strategy
PublisherCABI Publishing
Number of pages16
ISBN (Print)9781845933234
Publication statusPublished - 18 Dec 2007


  • Forecasting.
  • Modelling
  • Tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Business,Management and Accounting
  • General Environmental Science
  • General Social Sciences


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