The quality of projections: Manpower demand for the Hong Kong construction industry

James M W Wong, Ping Chuen Chan, Yat Hung Chiang

Research output: Chapter in book / Conference proceedingConference article published in proceeding or bookAcademic researchpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Employment planning has been an important management tool in balancing manpower demand and supply. Otherwise, structural unemployment or skill shortage would impede industrial development. Employment planning requires reliable employment forecasts to be effective. The assessment of the labour market and the forecast of its demand have, however, remained challenges to researchers, employment policy makers, manpower analysts and educational planners. This paper attempts to examine and evaluate the reliability and applicability of the existing manpower requirement forecasting models for the Hong Kong construction industry. The forecasting performances of the local models are assessed empirically by detecting forecasting errors. It aims to identify enhancements for further development of manpower forecasting model for the industry. The evaluation reveals that the existing models could not provide accurate forecasts, possibly due to the oversimplified assumptions and forecasting methodology. More advanced modelling technique should be adopted to improve the accuracy of the forecasts at industry level and further analysis on improving the reliability of the project-based multiplier model is recommended.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationQueensland University of Technology Research Week International Conference, QUT Research Week 2005 - Conference Proceedings
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2005
EventQueensland University of Technology Research Week International Conference, QUT Research Week 2005 - Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Duration: 4 Jul 20058 Jul 2005

Conference

ConferenceQueensland University of Technology Research Week International Conference, QUT Research Week 2005
Country/TerritoryAustralia
CityBrisbane, QLD
Period4/07/058/07/05

Keywords

  • Employment planning
  • Forecasting
  • Hong Kong
  • Manpower demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management of Technology and Innovation

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