Abstract
Employment planning has been an important management tool in balancing manpower demand and supply. Otherwise, structural unemployment or skill shortage would impede industrial development. Employment planning requires reliable employment forecasts to be effective. The assessment of the labour market and the forecast of its demand have, however, remained challenges to researchers, employment policy makers, manpower analysts and educational planners. This paper attempts to examine and evaluate the reliability and applicability of the existing manpower requirement forecasting models for the Hong Kong construction industry. The forecasting performances of the local models are assessed empirically by detecting forecasting errors. It aims to identify enhancements for further development of manpower forecasting model for the industry. The evaluation reveals that the existing models could not provide accurate forecasts, possibly due to the oversimplified assumptions and forecasting methodology. More advanced modelling technique should be adopted to improve the accuracy of the forecasts at industry level and further analysis on improving the reliability of the project-based multiplier model is recommended.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Queensland University of Technology Research Week International Conference, QUT Research Week 2005 - Conference Proceedings |
Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2005 |
Event | Queensland University of Technology Research Week International Conference, QUT Research Week 2005 - Brisbane, QLD, Australia Duration: 4 Jul 2005 → 8 Jul 2005 |
Conference
Conference | Queensland University of Technology Research Week International Conference, QUT Research Week 2005 |
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Country/Territory | Australia |
City | Brisbane, QLD |
Period | 4/07/05 → 8/07/05 |
Keywords
- Employment planning
- Forecasting
- Hong Kong
- Manpower demand
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Management of Technology and Innovation