The Potential Diffusion and Economic Impacts of Private Autonomous Vehicles A Spatial Agent-Based Model

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are a key element of smart mobility, and thus would contribute to the development of smart and sustainable cities. This study developed a spatial agent-based model to simulate the diffusion of private AVs over time and across space, and further explored how the AV diffusion might potentially influence housing expenses saved through residential relocation and in-vehicle work, using empirical findings obtained from a questionnaire survey in Beijing in 2020. In particular, the model incorporated neighbor and friendship influences to explicitly simulate the communications between AV adopters and non-adopters. We set up Policy and Price scenarios to explore how the license plate lottery policy and upfront cost of AVs might influence the uptake and economic impacts of AVs in Beijing, respectively. The results suggested that the policy and cost could heavily influence the uptake of AVs at both the micro and macro levels, and further the housing expenses saved and in-vehicle work. The results would be helpful for AV-related stakeholders, including local authorities, urban planners and vehicle manufacturers.