The multi-class schedule-based transit assignment model under network uncertainties

Demand and supply uncertainties at schedule-based transit network levels strongly impact different passengers' travel behavior. In this paper, a new multi-class user reliability-based dynamic transit assignment model is presented. Passengers differ in their heterogeneous risk-taking attitudes towards the random travel cost. The stochastic characteristics of the main travel cost components (in-vehicle travel time, waiting time, and early or late penalty) are demonstrated by specifying the demand and supply uncertainties and their interactions. Passenger route and departure time choice is determined by each passenger's respective reliability requirements. Vehicle capacity constraint for random passenger demand is handled by an in-vehicle congestion parameter. The proposed model is formulated as a fixed-point problem, and solved by a heuristic MSA-type algorithm. The numerical result shows that the risk-taking attitude will impact greatly on passengers' travel mode and departure time choices, as well as their money and time costs. This model is also capable of generating transit service attributes such as the stochastic vehicle dwelling time and the deviated timetable.