The Long-Term Periodic Patterns of Global Rabies Epidemics among Animals: A Modeling Analysis

Salihu Sabiu Musa; Shi Zhao; Daihai He; Chao Liu

doi:10.1142/S0218127420500479

The Long-Term Periodic Patterns of Global Rabies Epidemics among Animals: A Modeling Analysis

Salihu Sabiu Musa, Shi Zhao, Daihai He, Chao Liu

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Rabies remains a serious threat to public health in Asia, Africa and some parts of Europe with a case fatality rate of 95%. We adopted wavelet analysis to study the long-term recurrence of global rabies outbreaks and found that a 3- to 4-year periodicity has existed since 2005. Furthermore, a simple compartmental model is developed and analyzed to study the transmission dynamics, and to show the existence of the observed periodicity as well as the endemic feature of rabies among animals. Our findings indicate the existence of the oscillation patterns (recurrence), and the epidemic is at its peak since 2018.

Original language	English
Article number	2050047
Pages (from-to)	1-7
Number of pages	7
Journal	International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos
Volume	30
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127420500479
Publication status	Published - 15 Mar 2020

Keywords

damping oscillation
long-term recurrence
Rabies
transition dynamics
wavelet analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Modelling and Simulation
Engineering (miscellaneous)
General
Applied Mathematics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1142/S0218127420500479

Cite this

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abstract = "Rabies remains a serious threat to public health in Asia, Africa and some parts of Europe with a case fatality rate of 95%. We adopted wavelet analysis to study the long-term recurrence of global rabies outbreaks and found that a 3- to 4-year periodicity has existed since 2005. Furthermore, a simple compartmental model is developed and analyzed to study the transmission dynamics, and to show the existence of the observed periodicity as well as the endemic feature of rabies among animals. Our findings indicate the existence of the oscillation patterns (recurrence), and the epidemic is at its peak since 2018.",

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AU - Zhao, Shi

AU - He, Daihai

AU - Liu, Chao

PY - 2020/3/15

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AB - Rabies remains a serious threat to public health in Asia, Africa and some parts of Europe with a case fatality rate of 95%. We adopted wavelet analysis to study the long-term recurrence of global rabies outbreaks and found that a 3- to 4-year periodicity has existed since 2005. Furthermore, a simple compartmental model is developed and analyzed to study the transmission dynamics, and to show the existence of the observed periodicity as well as the endemic feature of rabies among animals. Our findings indicate the existence of the oscillation patterns (recurrence), and the epidemic is at its peak since 2018.

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KW - long-term recurrence

KW - Rabies

KW - transition dynamics

KW - wavelet analysis

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The Long-Term Periodic Patterns of Global Rabies Epidemics among Animals: A Modeling Analysis

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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