The Long-Term Periodic Patterns of Global Rabies Epidemics among Animals: A Modeling Analysis

Salihu Sabiu Musa, Shi Zhao, Daihai He, Chao Liu

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Rabies remains a serious threat to public health in Asia, Africa and some parts of Europe with a case fatality rate of 95%. We adopted wavelet analysis to study the long-term recurrence of global rabies outbreaks and found that a 3- to 4-year periodicity has existed since 2005. Furthermore, a simple compartmental model is developed and analyzed to study the transmission dynamics, and to show the existence of the observed periodicity as well as the endemic feature of rabies among animals. Our findings indicate the existence of the oscillation patterns (recurrence), and the epidemic is at its peak since 2018.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2050047
Pages (from-to)1-7
Number of pages7
JournalInternational Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos
Volume30
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Mar 2020

Keywords

  • damping oscillation
  • long-term recurrence
  • Rabies
  • transition dynamics
  • wavelet analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Engineering (miscellaneous)
  • General
  • Applied Mathematics

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