The impact of wind forecasting in power system reliability

With increasing wind generation into the existing power system, research into the impact in system reliability with significant wind penetration has become a vital challenge. Wind is perfect to deal with energy security and environment concerns, but its variability and average predictability may cause operation and reliability problems, which need more actions and better services. A robust tool for wind power forecasting will improve the wind power integration in both economic and technical aspects. This paper evaluates the techniques for wind power forecast, and proposes a practical short term wind power prediction modeling with ARMA model. Furthermore, the expected impacts for wind power forecasting with improved accuracy are specified and analyzed. Preliminary results illustrate that larger amount of wind energy on the grid and optimized integration of wind power need to be supported by using more accurate wind forecasting tools.