The impact of the asian financial crisis on japanese demand for travel to Hong Kong: A study of various forecasting techniques

Chun Hung Roberts Law

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

42 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Asian financial crisis has drawn worldwide attention because of its significant economic impact on local economics, especially on the economy of a tourism-dependent destination. Unfortunately, there have been very few articles about the relationship of the Asian financial crisis and tourism demand forecasting. This relative lack of prior studies on the Asian financial crisis and tourism demand forecasting is particularly true in the context of Hong Kong. This article reports on a study that utilized officially published data to test the accuracy of forecasts of Japanese demand for travel to Hong Kong, measured in terms of the number of Japanese tourist arrivals. Seven commonly-used tourism forecasting techniques were used to determine the forecasting accuracy. The quality of forecasting accuracy was measured in five dimensions. Experimental results indicated mixed results in terms of forecasting accuracy. Overall, artificial neural network outperformed other techniques in three of the five dimensions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)47-65
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Travel and Tourism Marketing
Volume10
Issue number2-3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2001

Keywords

  • Asian financial crisis
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Tourism demand forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management
  • Marketing

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