TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of multi-level interventions on the second-wave SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China
AU - He, Yuanchen
AU - Chen, Yinzi
AU - Yang, Lin
AU - Zhou, Ying
AU - Ye, Run
AU - Wang, Xiling
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 He et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
PY - 2022/9
Y1 - 2022/9
N2 - Background A re-emergence of COVID-19 occurred in the northeast of China in early 2021. Different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions, from mass testing to city-level lockdown, were implemented to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Our study is aimed to evaluate the impact of multi-level control measures on the second-wave SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the most affected cities in China. Methods Five cities with over 100 reported COVID-19 cases within one month from Dec 2020 to Feb 2021 were included in our analysis. We fitted the exponential growth model to estimate basic reproduction number (R0), and used a Bayesian approach to assess the dynamics of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We fitted linear regression lines on Rt estimates for comparing the decline rates of Rt across cities, and the slopes were tested by analysis of covariance. The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) was quantified by relative Rt reduction and statistically compared by analysis of variance. Results A total of 2,609 COVID-19 cases were analyzed in this study. We estimated that R0 all exceeded 1, with the highest value of 3.63 (1.36, 8.53) in Haerbin and the lowest value of 2.45 (1.44, 3.98) in Shijiazhuang. Downward trends of Rt were found in all cities, and the starting time of Rt < 1 was around the 12th day of the first local COVID-19 cases. Statistical tests on regression slopes of Rt and effect of NPIs both showed no significant difference across five cities (P = 0.126 and 0.157). Conclusion Timely implemented NPIs could control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 with low-intensity measures for places where population immunity has not been established.
AB - Background A re-emergence of COVID-19 occurred in the northeast of China in early 2021. Different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions, from mass testing to city-level lockdown, were implemented to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Our study is aimed to evaluate the impact of multi-level control measures on the second-wave SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the most affected cities in China. Methods Five cities with over 100 reported COVID-19 cases within one month from Dec 2020 to Feb 2021 were included in our analysis. We fitted the exponential growth model to estimate basic reproduction number (R0), and used a Bayesian approach to assess the dynamics of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We fitted linear regression lines on Rt estimates for comparing the decline rates of Rt across cities, and the slopes were tested by analysis of covariance. The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) was quantified by relative Rt reduction and statistically compared by analysis of variance. Results A total of 2,609 COVID-19 cases were analyzed in this study. We estimated that R0 all exceeded 1, with the highest value of 3.63 (1.36, 8.53) in Haerbin and the lowest value of 2.45 (1.44, 3.98) in Shijiazhuang. Downward trends of Rt were found in all cities, and the starting time of Rt < 1 was around the 12th day of the first local COVID-19 cases. Statistical tests on regression slopes of Rt and effect of NPIs both showed no significant difference across five cities (P = 0.126 and 0.157). Conclusion Timely implemented NPIs could control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 with low-intensity measures for places where population immunity has not been established.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85138450660&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0274590
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0274590
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 36112630
AN - SCOPUS:85138450660
SN - 1932-6203
VL - 17
JO - PLoS ONE
JF - PLoS ONE
IS - 9 Septamber
M1 - e0274590
ER -