The dynamic correlation and volatility of real estate price and rental: An application of MSV model

Chi Man Hui, Xian Zheng

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamic conditional correlation between price and rental among four types of real estate markets, namely housing, retail, office and factory. In the case of Hong Kong (from January 1993 to December 2008), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (DCC-MSV) model and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are employed to capture the volatility and time varying correlation of property price and rental in each market. The empirical results demonstrate that the volatilities of price are significantly larger than those of rental for each type of real estate markets throughout the whole sample period. Besides, the findings indicate that the correlations between price and rental are time-varying, and the average correlation in the housing market is much larger than those in the other three markets. Also, the conditional correlations in the factory market are the most volatile, while those in the office market are relatively stable. Additionally, two particularly volatile periods have been identified in and around 1997 and 2003.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2985-2995
Number of pages11
JournalApplied Economics
Volume44
Issue number23
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2012

Keywords

  • Dcc-msv model
  • Dynamic correlation
  • Price and rental
  • Real estate
  • Volatility

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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