The combination of interval forecasts in tourism

Gang Li, Doris Chenguang Wu, Menglin Zhou, Anyu Liu

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Combination is an effective way to improve tourism forecasting accuracy. However, empirical evidence is limited to point forecasts. Given that interval forecasts can provide more comprehensive information, it is important to consider both point and interval forecasts for decision-making. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study is the first to examine if and how the combination can improve interval forecasting accuracy for tourism demand. Winkler scores are employed to measure interval forecasting performance. Empirical results show that combination improves the accuracy of tourism interval forecasting for different forecasting horizons. The findings provide government and industry practitioners with guidelines for producing accurate interval forecasts that benefit their policy-making for a wide array of applications in practice. This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on Tourism Demand Forecast, a special selection of research in this field.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)363-378
Number of pages16
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume75
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2019
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Combination forecasting
  • Econometric model
  • Interval forecast
  • Tourism demand
  • Winkler score

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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