The Carbon Emission Implications of Intensive Urban Land Use in Emerging Regions: Insights from Chinese Cities

Intensive urban land use is a strategy to enhance productivity and mitigate environmental challenges in emerging regions, but its relationship with carbon emissions needs further city-level investigation. This study investigates the impact of intensive urban land use on carbon emissions across 153 cities in China, thus employing the STIRPAT model with the ordinary least square (OLS) and geographical weighted regression (GWR) methods. The findings underscore the heterogenous influence of intensive urban land use on carbon emissions across China’s urban landscapes: (1) R&D investment intensity and population density show significant negative association with carbon emissions in general. (2) Capital investment intensity positively affects carbon emissions in low-income cities, R&D investment intensity shows negative effects on carbon emissions in middle-income cities, and population density emerges as a substantial factor in reducing carbon emissions in both middle- and low-income cities. (3) Capital intensity, labor intensity, and R&D investment intensity exert positive effects on emissions in middle China and negative influences in northeastern and southern China, whereas population density shows converse spatial effects. Based on the study’s results, tailored policy implications are provided for urban planning authorities in emerging regions.