The air transport industry after the COVID-19: A structural equation modelling-based empirical study considering vaccines' popularity and pandemic-associated risk

The air transport industry is suffering from the restriction of borders under the COVID-19 pandemic. Some say the industry may recover with the availability of vaccines, and some might even expect a “travel boom” just after the pandemic. In 2021, the latest update of the pandemic is the availability of vaccines, which might alter one’s consideration of travelling. Thus, considering the willingness to be vaccinated, perceived risk to travel via air transport, health risk propensity, prevention focus, pandemic travel anxiety, and xenophobia, this study empirically establishes the relationship between the abovementioned factors to a key performance indicator – the post-pandemic intention to travel by covariance-based structural equation modelling with 442 responses obtained in Hong Kong. Results suggested the perceived risk to travel via air transport negatively influence the post-pandemic intention to travel. However, it is interesting that the effect of vaccines is not as significant as intuitively thought. With a focus on the late- and post-pandemic situation, this study contributes by anticipating the future of the air transport industry in the late-/post-pandemic times via field understanding of the consumers’ behaviours – the general public’s psychology in post-pandemic travel, and draw some managerial insights to the industry for better preparation for potential similar events in the future.