Stochastic-based Deterioration Modeling of Elevators in Healthcare Facilities

Deterioration and aging associated with building assets are becoming major concerns in most countries as their building portfolios continue to increase and expand. Healthcare facilities are a special case of building assets that inherit a significant criticality and complexity within its operation and maintenance regimes which makes monitoring the assets' condition and forecasting their life expectancy two of the most essential functions in a healthcare environment. In this paper, a stochastic deterioration prediction approach was developed to model and estimate the degradation of elevators systems within hospital building environments due to their importance to the continuity of the hospital mission and services. Different probability distributions were fitted using historical condition data and the performance of different distributions was then compared utilizing the Anderson-Darling test. Parameters of the best distribution were thus found using maximum likelihood estimate. The developed model is expected to aid decision makers in improving the planning process for their maintenance and rehabilitation programs and to efficiently conduct proactive maintenance activities in a timely manner which helps ensure the sustainability of hospital operation.