Staged survival models for overlay performance prediction

Yuhong Wang, D. Allen

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)


Asphalt concrete (AC) resurfacing is used by highway agencies to maintain and improve existing pavement conditions. With a large portion of their budgets being spent on road maintenance and rehabilitation, the agencies are interested in identifying the optimal timing of resurfacing and its life expectations. Using Kentucky's pavement management data, the research as presented by this paper investigated the procedures and methods of establishing thresholds and developing performance prediction models for AC overlays. Both transition probability matrix and data plots were used to investigate the performance trend of overlays. Based on the trend, two stage survival models were proposed to predict the resurfacing cycles. The first stage model can be used to predict the useful life of an overlay before a new resurfacing is required, while the second one can be used to predict the time window during which the new overlay must be applied to avoid accelerated pavement deterioration.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)33-44
Number of pages12
JournalInternational Journal of Pavement Engineering
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2008
Externally publishedYes


  • Pavement distress
  • Pavement management system
  • Pavement performance
  • Survival analysis
  • Transition probability matrix

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Mechanics of Materials

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