Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of cooling water control strategies

Many studies have been focusing on optimal control of HVAC systems. Various optimal control methods were developed by researchers. However, the uncertainties in the optimal control strategies were rarely considered. The uncertainties commonly exist in the measurements of real plants. These measurement uncertainties impact the outputs of optimal control strategies. As a result, the risk of implementing the optimal control strategies in real systems should be analyzed. This article presents a method for analyzing the impacts of measurement uncertainties on control strategies. The method is used to evaluate control strategies for a typical cooling water system. Results show that the method applied in the uncertainty analysis is effective in estimating the uncertainty propagation in control strategies. Furthermore, energy wastes of a central cooling plant resulting from measurement uncertainties in different seasons using different control strategies are estimated.