Scenario-based earthquake loss estimation for the city of Cairo, Egypt

A. M. Moharram, A. Y. Elghazouli, J. J. Bommer

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


This paper describes a multi-tiered loss assessment methodology to estimate seismic monetary implications resulting from structural damage to the building population in Greater Cairo. After outlining a ground-shaking model, data on geological structures and surface soil conditions are collated using a considerable number of boreholes to produce a classification of different soil deposits. An inventory database for the existing building stock is also prepared. The seismic vulnerability of representative reinforced concrete building models, designed according to prevalent codes and construction practices, is evaluated. Capacity spectrum methods are utilised for assessing the structural performance through a multi-level damage scale. A simplified methodology for deriving fragility curves for non-ductile reinforced concrete building classes that typically constitute the building population of the city is adopted. In addition, suitable fragility functions for unreinforced masonry constructions are selected and used for completing the loss model for the study area. The results are finally used to build an event-based loss model caused by possible earthquakes in the region.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)92-112
Number of pages21
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2008


  • Cairo
  • Earthquake risks
  • Earthquakes
  • Egypt
  • Fragility
  • Loss assessment
  • Loss estimation
  • Seismic risk
  • Vulnerability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Building and Construction
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Geology


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