Risk assessment of wind power prediction errors

The requirements on the error evaluation index for wind power prediction (WPP) and drawbacks of the traditional evaluation indexes are summarized. By distinguishing the influences on electric power reliability of a positive error from those of a negative error, a risk assessment index is proposed for WPP errors and its calculation. The risk assessment index is defined as an integration of the probability of a power disturbance event caused by WPP error and the losses caused by the event. Having a monetary dimension, the index can be accumulated as risk cost of WPP error with other costs directly. Thus, the confusion on how to trade off “ignoring the events of small probability” against “attaching importance to the events with heavy losses” can be dispelled for those events with big error as well as very small probability. Finally, an actual wind farm system in Ningxia, China is applied to illustrating the feasibility and availability of the risk index.