Reservoir operation based on evolutionary algorithms and multi-criteria decision-making under climate change and uncertainty

Mohammad Ehteram, Sayed Farhad Mousavi, Hojat Karami, Saeed Farzin, Vijay P. Singh, Kwok Wing Chau, Ahmed El-Shafie

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study investigated reservoir operation under climate change for a base period (1981-2000) and future period (2011-2030). Different climate change models, based on A2 scenario, were used and the HAD-CM3 model, considering uncertainty, among other climate change models was found to be the best model. For the Dez basin in Iran, considered as a case study, the climate change models predicted increasing temperature from 1.16 to 2.5°C and decreasing precipitation for the future period. Also, runoff volume for the basin would decrease and irrigation demand for the downstream consumption would increase for the future period. A hybrid framework (optimization-climate change) was used for reservoir operation and the bat algorithm was used for minimization of irrigation deficit. A genetic algorithm and a particle swarm algorithm were selected for comparison with the bat algorithm. The reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability indices, based on a multi-criteria model, were used to select the base method for reservoir operation. Results showed the volume of water to be released for the future period, based on all evolutionary algorithms used, was less than for the base period, and the bat algorithm with high-reliability index and low vulnerability index performed better among other evolutionary algorithms.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)332-355
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Hydroinformatics
Volume20
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2018

Keywords

  • Bat algorithm
  • Climate change
  • Reservoir operation
  • Water resource management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Atmospheric Science

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