TY - JOUR
T1 - Reopening international borders without quarantine
T2 - Contact tracing integrated policy against covid-19
AU - Yu, Zidong
AU - Zhu, Xiaolin
AU - Liu, Xintao
AU - Wei, Tao
AU - Yuan, Hsiang Yu
AU - Xu, Yang
AU - Zhu, Rui
AU - He, Huan
AU - Wang, Hui
AU - Wong, Man Sing
AU - Jia, Peng
AU - Guo, Song
AU - Shi, Wenzhong
AU - Chen, Wu
N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: This study was supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University (ZVN6), and Health and Medical Research Fund (COVID190215).
Funding Information:
This study was supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University (ZVN6), and Health and Medical Research Fund (COVID190215).Acknowledgments: The authors very much appreciate the valuable and profound comments from Xiang Chen and appreciate the support by the Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health in Hong Kong for providing data.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authorsLicensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2021/7/2
Y1 - 2021/7/2
N2 - With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quaran-tines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7–12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.
AB - With the COVID-19 vaccination widely implemented in most countries, propelled by the need to revive the tourism economy, there is a growing prospect for relieving the social distancing regulation and reopening borders in tourism-oriented countries and regions. This need incentivizes stakeholders to develop border control strategies that fully evaluate health risks if mandatory quaran-tines are lifted. In this study, we have employed a computational approach to investigate the contact tracing integrated policy in different border-reopening scenarios in Hong Kong, China. Explicitly, by reconstructing the COVID-19 transmission from historical data, specific scenarios with joint effects of digital contact tracing and other concurrent measures (i.e., controlling arrival population and community nonpharmacological interventions) are applied to forecast the future development of the pandemic. Built on a modified SEIR epidemic model with a 30% vaccination coverage, the results suggest that scenarios with digital contact tracing and quick isolation intervention can reduce the infectious population by 92.11% compared to those without contact tracing. By further restricting the inbound population with a 10,000 daily quota and applying moderate-to-strong community nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs), the average daily confirmed cases in the forecast period of 60 days can be well controlled at around 9 per day (95% CI: 7–12). Two main policy recommendations are drawn from the study. First, digital contact tracing would be an effective countermeasure for reducing local virus spread, especially when it is applied along with a moderate level of vaccination coverage. Second, implementing a daily quota on inbound travelers and restrictive community NPIs would further keep the local infection under control. This study offers scientific evidence and prospective guidance for developing and instituting plans to lift mandatory border control policies in preparing for the global economic recovery.
KW - Border reopening
KW - COVID-19
KW - Digital contact tracing
KW - International travel
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85109856665&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/ijerph18147494
DO - 10.3390/ijerph18147494
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 34299945
AN - SCOPUS:85109856665
SN - 1661-7827
VL - 18
JO - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
JF - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
IS - 14
M1 - 7494
ER -
