Reliable network design problem: Case with uncertain demand and total travel time reliability

Agachai Sumalee, David P. Watling, Shoichiro Nakayama

Research output: Chapter in book / Conference proceedingConference article published in proceeding or bookAcademic researchpeer-review

112 Citations (Scopus)


In the reliable network design problem (RNDP) the main sources of uncertainty are variable demand and route choice. The objective is to maximize network total travel time reliability (TTR), which is defined as the probability that the network total travel time will be less than a threshold. A framework is presented for a stochastic network model with Poisson-distributed demand and uncertain route choice. The travelers are assumed to choose their routes to minimize their perceived expected travel cost following the probit stochastic user equilibrium condition. An analytical method is presented for approximation of the first and second moments of the total travel time. These moments are then fitted with a log-normal distribution. Then the design problem is tackled in which the analytical derivative of the TTR is derived with the sensitivity analysis of the equilibrated path choice probability. This derivative is then supplied to a gradient-based optimization algorithm to solve the RNDP. The algorithm is tested with a small network example.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationNetwork Modeling 2006
PublisherNational Research Council
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)0309099730, 9780309099738
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2006
Externally publishedYes

Publication series

NameTransportation Research Record
ISSN (Print)0361-1981

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering


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