Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting

Gang Li, Haiyan Song, Stephen F. Witt

Research output: Journal article publicationReview articleAcademic researchpeer-review

330 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Eighty-four post-1990 empirical studies of international tourism demand modeling and forecasting using econometric approaches are reviewed. New developments are identified, and it is shown that applications of advanced econometric methods improve the understanding of international tourism demand. An examination of the 22 studies that compare forecasting performance suggests that no single forecasting method can outperform the alternatives in all cases. The time-varying parameter (TVP) model and structural time-series model with causal variables, however, perform consistently well.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)82-99
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Volume44
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2005

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Modeling
  • Tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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