Real-time defect detection of high-speed train wheels by using Bayesian forecasting and dynamic model

High-speed rail (HSR) is being developed in Asian and European countries to satisfy the rapidly growing demand for intercity services and to shore up economic growth. The rapid growth of HSR, however, has posed great challenges regarding operation safety, reliability and ride comfort. Irregular wheel defects can induce high-magnitude impact forces hindering safety and ride comfort of HSR and may also cause damage to rail tracks and vehicles. The focus of this study is to develop a real-time defect detection methodology based on Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM) enabling to detect potentially defective wheels in real time. The proposed methodology embraces logics for (i) prognosis, (ii) potential outlier detection, (iii) identification of change occurrence (change-point detection), and (iv) quantification of damage extent and uncertainty. Relying on the strain monitoring data acquired from high-speed train bogies, the Bayesian DLM for characterizing the actual stress ranges is established, by which one-step forecast distribution is elicited before proceeding to the next observation. The detection of change-point is executed by comparing the routine model (forecast distribution generated by the Bayesian DLM) and an alternative model (the mean value is shifted by a prescribed offset) to determine which better fits the actual observation. If the comparison results are in favor of the alternative model, it is claimed that a potential change has occurred. Whether such an observation is an outlier or the beginning of a genuine change (change-point), three metrics (i.e., Bayes factor, maximum cumulative Bayes factor and run length) are performed for further identification. Once a change-point is confirmed, Bayesian hypothesis testing is conducted for the purpose of damage extent assessment and uncertainty quantification. A severe change, if identified, implies that the quality of train wheels has suffered from a significant alteration due to defects. In the case study, two cases making use of strain monitoring data acquired by fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors affixed on bogies are illustrated to verify the performance of the proposed methodology for real-time wheel defect detection of in-service high-speed trains.