Quantifying the impacts of delays on mobility patterns using transit smart card data

This study investigates the mobility patterns in public transit system with a focus on commuters' departure time choice using large amount of transit smart card data. We use Sydney in our case studies. Unlike conventional methods using stated-preference and simulation techniques, we quantify the correlation between commuters' departure time and transit service delay through observed transit data at the individual level. We conclude that the changes in departure time is positively correlated to the delays in public transit services when the delays are larger than 10 minutes. Travellers are more likely to depart later to avoid waiting at transit stops. We also find that travellers from different regions of the city have different sensitivity to the delay. Long-journey travellers tend to have lower tolerance to transit service delay. These findings highlight the importance of improving reliability of transit service to guarantee its service level and ridership.