Probabilistic ship collision risk and sustainability assessment considering risk attitudes

The disastrous consequences of ship collision necessitate the development of a collision risk-informed assessment procedure that ensures safety and functionality of maritime transportation systems. In this paper, an approach to assess the risk and sustainability associated with ship collision accidents is presented. The probability of ship collision is computed by taking into account traffic data and operational conditions. In this paper, sustainability is quantified considering the detrimental economic, social, and environmental consequences associated with ship collision. The economic, social and environmental metrics are evaluated separately and then social and environmental metrics are converted into an economic metric considering their associated monetary values. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties associated with damage conditions of ships and consequences are incorporated in this methodology in order to provide a rational assessment of risk and sustainability. Risk attitudes are incorporated within risk analysis by utilizing utility functions. The approach is illustrated on a maritime transportation system in the Delaware River area considering the properties of damaged ships and maritime traffic in this specific region. Ultimately, this approach can aid the decision maker to make informed choices based on risk and sustainability considering risk attitudes.