TY - JOUR
T1 - Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran
T2 - A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data
AU - Zhuang, Zian
AU - Zhao, Shi
AU - Lin, Qianying
AU - Cao, Peihua
AU - Lou, Yijun
AU - Yang, Lin
AU - He, Daihai
PY - 2020/5
Y1 - 2020/5
N2 - As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925–35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.
AB - As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925–35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.
KW - Air travel data
KW - Ascertainment rate
KW - Coronavirus disease 2019
KW - COVID-19
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85083065331&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019
DO - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 32171951
AN - SCOPUS:85083065331
SN - 1201-9712
VL - 94
SP - 29
EP - 31
JO - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
JF - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
ER -