Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data

Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

43 Citations (Scopus)


As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925–35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)29-31
Number of pages3
JournalInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases
Publication statusPublished - May 2020


  • Air travel data
  • Ascertainment rate
  • Coronavirus disease 2019
  • COVID-19

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

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