Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Shu Yang, Daihai He, Li Xiao

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

37 Citations (Scopus)


The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)308-310
Number of pages3
JournalInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2020


  • Basic reproduction number
  • Coronavirus disease 2019
  • COVID-19
  • Italy
  • Republic of Korea

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

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