Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

Zian Zhuang; Shi Zhao; Qianying Lin; Peihua Cao; Yijun Lou; Lin Yang; Shu Yang; Daihai He; Li Xiao

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044

Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, Shu Yang, Daihai He, Li Xiao

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

56 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R₀ as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	308-310
Number of pages	3
Journal	International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume	95
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044
Publication status	Published - Jun 2020

Keywords

Basic reproduction number
Coronavirus disease 2019
COVID-19
Italy
Republic of Korea

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Microbiology (medical)
Infectious Diseases

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

More information

10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044

http://hdl.handle.net/10397/87649

Cite this

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title = "Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020",

abstract = "The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.",

keywords = "Basic reproduction number, Coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, Italy, Republic of Korea",

author = "Zian Zhuang and Shi Zhao and Qianying Lin and Peihua Cao and Yijun Lou and Lin Yang and Shu Yang and Daihai He and Li Xiao",

year = "2020",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044",

language = "English",

volume = "95",

pages = "308--310",

journal = "International Journal of Infectious Diseases",

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Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020. / Zhuang, Zian; Zhao, Shi; Lin, Qianying et al.
In: International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 95, 06.2020, p. 308-310.

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

AU - Zhuang, Zian

AU - Zhao, Shi

AU - Lin, Qianying

AU - Cao, Peihua

AU - Lou, Yijun

AU - Yang, Lin

AU - Yang, Shu

AU - He, Daihai

AU - Xiao, Li

PY - 2020/6

Y1 - 2020/6

N2 - The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.

AB - The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - Coronavirus disease 2019

KW - COVID-19

KW - Italy

KW - Republic of Korea

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DO - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32334115

AN - SCOPUS:85084224138

SN - 1201-9712

VL - 95

SP - 308

EP - 310

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JF - International Journal of Infectious Diseases

ER -

Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

More information

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