Prediction models for annual break rates of water mains

Yong Wang, Tarek Zayed, Osama Moselhi

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

44 Citations (Scopus)


Annual break rates are often used by municipalities as one of the most important criteria in rating the condition of water mains. This paper presents the development of deterioration models that predict the annual break rates of water mains considering pipe material, diameter, age, and length. The data used in this paper are collected from a Canadian municipality that has a large water distribution network. The collected data cover 15-year pipe break records of 432 km of water mains. Five multiple regression models are developed, which show robust statistical analysis. Twenty percent of break data were randomly selected for validation in which the developed models demonstrate satisfactory results. The research presented in this paper is expected to be useful to academics and practitioners (municipal engineers, consultants, and contractors) in analyzing deterioration trends of water mains.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)40-46
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2009
Externally publishedYes


  • Buried pipes
  • Deterioration
  • Infrastructure
  • Rehabilitation
  • Water distribution systems
  • Water pipelines

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Building and Construction
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality


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