Playing to strengths: construction and application of sustainable aviation fuel development index

Aviation decarbonization is critical yet faces formidable challenges under stringent emissions targets. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) represents the most viable route to net-zero emissions in the near term, but its commercialization remains uneven due to feedstock limitations, high costs, and capacity constraints. This study introduces an analytical framework to evaluate global SAF development potential by compiling a dataset on energy mix, economic and industrial capacity, aviation demand, carbon intensity, and feedstock supply. Through principal component analysis, we derive development indices for four SAF pathways: HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids), FT (Fischer-Tropsch synthesis), ATJ (alcohol to jet), and PtL (power to liquid). Our results indicate that SAF advancement depends primarily on industrial infrastructure and supply–demand stability, with regional disparities shaped by resource endowments and market demand. We recommend coordinated technology governance, strategic resource planning, and differentiated deployment aligned with national/regional contexts under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.