Percentile travel time based dynamic traffic assignment model under supply uncertainty

Research output: Chapter in book / Conference proceedingConference article published in proceeding or bookAcademic researchpeer-review

Abstract

Transportation systems are always suffered with random disturbance, such as adverse weather and traffic incidents, which bring uncertainties in network supply. In this paper, the link travel time is random and depicted by a stochastic dynamic link performance function. The reliability issue is considered by introducing the reliability index, i.e., percentile travel time. Assume that the percentile travel time is the experienced travel time and there are spatial and temporal covariance between links on the same route, the route travel time distribution can be calculated. Based on the reliability based route choice principle, we developed a percentile travel time based dynamic traffic assignment model. As to the proposed model is route based, the method of successive average is used to solve the model. At last, numerical tests are carried on a simple network. The proposed model can predict the arrival time distribution then the traveller can make route choice with given on-time arrival probability.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014 - Transportation and Infrastructure
PublisherHong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited
Pages323-330
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9789881581433
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014
Event19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Infrastructure, HKSTS 2014 - Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Duration: 13 Dec 201415 Dec 2014

Conference

Conference19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Infrastructure, HKSTS 2014
CountryHong Kong
CityHong Kong
Period13/12/1415/12/14

Keywords

  • Dynamic traffic assignment
  • Percentile travel time
  • Supply uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Transportation

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