Partition-based algorithm for estimating transportation network reliability with dependent link failures

Evaluating the reliability of a transportation network often involves an intensive simulation exercise to randomly generate and evaluate different possible network states. This paper proposes an algorithm to approximate the network reliability which minimizes the use of such simulation procedure. The algorithm will dissect and classify the network states into reliable, unreliable, and un-determined partitions. By postulating the monotone property of the reliability function, each reliable and/or unreliable state can be used to determine a number of other reliable and/or unreliable states without evaluating all of them with an equilibrium assignment procedure. The paper also proposes the cause-based failure framework for representing dependent link degradation probabilities. The algorithm and framework proposed are tested with a medium size test network to illustrate the performance of the algorithm.