Optimal structure adjustment strategy, emission reduction potential and utilization efficiency of fossil energies in China

From the perspective of low-carbon economy (LCE), this paper explores the optimal structure adjustment strategy, emission reduction potential and utilization efficiency of fossil energies (coal, petroleum, and natural gas) for 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019. A mixed integer data envelopment analysis model is proposed to identify the optimal structure adjustment and the potential emission reduction. Then, a new total-factor energy efficiency (TFEE) index based on energy structure adjustment is constructed to statically examine the utilization efficiencies of the three fossil energies. Finally, a novel calculation method of global Malmquist index is presented to dynamically analyze the energy productivity change. The results demonstrate that more than half of the provinces have the potential to reduce coal consumption, while for petroleum and natural gas, the optimal adjustment of different provinces is diverse. The CO₂ emission reduction brought about by the energy structure adjustment accounts for about 11% of the emission, and the emission reduction potential of central and western regions is significantly larger than that of eastern region. Technological progress is the main driving of productivity improvement for both LCE and three fossil energies. However, significant differences can be found in the management level of different fossil energies among provinces.