Optimal plan for land use and transport developments with consideration of climate changes

In this paper, a multistage land-use and transport design model with consideration of possible future weather conditions is proposed. This model is formulated as a bilevel model of which the upper level model is focused on finding the optimal allocation of housing and link capacity expansion that minimize the expected total travel cost of the design period. Due to the multiple climate scenarios and design stages, a scenario tree will be considered for the possible realization of climate scenarios in defining the quasi-dynamic lower level model. In the lower level, probit-based SUE model is formulated for each of the weather scenarios and the SUE models between design stages are interrelated by the travel costs and demand distribution function. Sensitivity analysis of the quasi-dynamic lower level model is completed for allowing the upper level model to be solved by standard gradient-based nonlinear optimization algorithms.