Optimal Granule-Based PIs Construction for Solar Irradiance Forecast

Songjian Chai; Zhao Xu; Wai Kin Wong

doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2473097

Optimal Granule-Based PIs Construction for Solar Irradiance Forecast

Songjian Chai, Zhao Xu, Wai Kin Wong

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This letter proposes a novel granule computing-based framework for prediction intervals (PIs) construction of solar irradiance time series that has significant impacts on solar power production. Distinguished from most existing methods, the new framework can address both stochastic and knowledge uncertainties in constructing PIs. The proposed method has proved to be highly effective in terms of both reliability and sharpness through a real case study using measurement data obtained from Hong Kong Observatory.

Original language	English
Article number	7268775
Pages (from-to)	3332-3333
Number of pages	2
Journal	IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume	31
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2473097
Publication status	Published - 1 Jul 2016

Keywords

Granular neural network
prediction intervals
random vector forward link (RVFL)
solar irradiance forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2473097

Cite this

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AB - This letter proposes a novel granule computing-based framework for prediction intervals (PIs) construction of solar irradiance time series that has significant impacts on solar power production. Distinguished from most existing methods, the new framework can address both stochastic and knowledge uncertainties in constructing PIs. The proposed method has proved to be highly effective in terms of both reliability and sharpness through a real case study using measurement data obtained from Hong Kong Observatory.

KW - Granular neural network

KW - prediction intervals

KW - random vector forward link (RVFL)

KW - solar irradiance forecasting

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Optimal Granule-Based PIs Construction for Solar Irradiance Forecast

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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