Nomogram for Predicting Asphalt Pavement Roughness After Preventive Maintenance Based on Long-Term Pavement Performance Data

Miaomiao Zhang, Hongren Gong, Yuetan Ma, Xi Jiang, Baoshan Huang

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review


Relative effectiveness has been used as the primary criterion when choosing pavement preventive maintenance (PM) treatments; however, the most effective treatment is not necessarily the most cost-effective treatment because of the higher cost. Cost-effectiveness should be determined by predictive models of PM-treated pavement performance, which has rarely been investigated. In this study, a predictive model for post-treatment pavement roughness—as defined by international roughness index (IRI)—was established utilizing the data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance Program (LTPP) Specific Pavement Study 3 (SPS-3). The generalized least squares (GLS) model was employed to improve the predictive performance by exploiting the characteristics of LTPP panel data. A nomogram was also provided to help highway agencies manually obtain the predicted post-treatment IRI values. Results show that post-treatment IRI was significantly higher in dry and non-freeze areas than in other climate areas. The effect of pavement structure on post-treatment IRI was time-dependent; it was insignificant at the beginning and gradually increased after 4 years. Although post-treatment IRI was affected by pavement structures and climate, the relative effectiveness of different PM treatments was only related to the pre-treatment IRI. Thin overlay significantly improved the pavement IRI, and when pre-treatment IRI was 2.0 m/km, the post-treatment IRI of the thin overlay would be reduced to 0.6 times that of the control. However, there was no significant difference in pavement IRI between different seal treatments.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)991-1006
Number of pages16
JournalTransportation Research Record
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - May 2023
Externally publishedYes


  • infrastructure
  • infrastructure management and system preservation
  • pavement asset management
  • pavement management
  • pavement management systems
  • pavement performance
  • pavement preservation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering


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