New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting

Doris Chenguang Wu, Haiyan Song, Shujie Shen

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

108 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review recent studies published from 2007 to 2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/methodology/approach: Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published mostly in both science citation index and social sciences citation index journals were identified and analyzed. Findings: This review finds that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, whereas disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications: The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications: This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value: The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)507-529
Number of pages23
JournalInternational Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management
Volume29
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2017

Keywords

  • Methodological development
  • Modelling and forecasting
  • Tourism and hotel demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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