Network equilibrium under cumulative prospect theory and endogeneous stochastic demand and supply

Agachai Sumalee, R.D. Connors, P. Luathep

Research output: Chapter in book / Conference proceedingChapter in an edited book (as author)Academic research

Abstract

In this paper we consider a network whose travel demands and road capacities are endogenously considered to be random variables. With stochastic demand and supply the route travel times are also random variables. In this scenario travelers choose their routes under travel time uncertainties. Several evidences suggest that the decision making process under uncertainty is significantly different from that without uncertainty. Therefore, the paper applies the decision framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to capture this difference. We first formulate a stochastic network model whose travel demands and link capacities follow lognormal distributions. The stochastic travel times can then be derived under a given route choice modeling framework. For the route choice, we consider a modeling framework where the perceived value and perceived probabilities of travel time outcomes are obtained via transformations following CPT. We then formulate an equilibrium condition similar to that of User Equilibrium in which travelers choose the routes that maximizes their perceived utility values in the face of transformed stochastic travel times. Conditions are established guaranteeing existence (but not uniqueness) of this equilibrium. The paper then proposes a solution algorithm for the proposed model which is then tested with a test network.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTransportation and traffic theory 2009 : Golden Jubilee : papers selected for presentation at ISTTT18, a peer reviewed series since 1959
PublisherSpringer
Pages19-38
Number of pages20
ISBN (Electronic)9781441908209
ISBN (Print)9781441908193
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009
EventInternational Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory -
Duration: 1 Jan 2009 → …

Conference

ConferenceInternational Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory
Period1/01/09 → …

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