effectiveness of these measures was unclear.
Methods: We quantified the transmissibility of outbreak in HKIA by the effective reproduction number, Reff(t), and basic reproduction number, R0(t). The reproduction number was modelled as a function of its determinants that were statistically examined, including lags in hospitalization, situation update, and level of public awareness. Then, we considered a hypothetical no-measure scenario when improvements in reporting and public enquiry were absent and calculated the number of infected airport staff.
Results: Our estimated average R0 is 10.09 (95% CI: 1.73−36.50). We found that R0(t) was positively associated with lags in hospitalization and situation update, while negatively associated with the level of public awareness. The average predicted basic reproduction number, r0, was 14.67 (95% CI: 9.01−45.32) under the no-measure scenario, which increased the average R0 by 77.57% (95% CI: 1.71−111.15). The total number of infected staff would be 179 (IQR: 90−339, 95% CI: 23−821), namely the measure induced 8.42-fold (95% CI:
0.21−42.21) reduction in the total number of infected staff.
Conclusion: Timely reporting on outbreak situation and public awareness measured by the number of public enquiries helped to control the outbreak.
- Public awareness
- Reproduction number
- Statistical modelling
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Infectious Diseases
- Pharmacology (medical)