Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach

Zheng Cao, Gang Li, Haiyan Song

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

33 Citations (Scopus)


The GVAR model overcomes the endogeneity and over-parameterisation issues found in many tourism demand models. The results show the size of co-movements in tourism demand across 24 major countries in different regions. In the event of negative shocks to China's real income and China's tourism price variable, almost all of these countries would face fluctuations in their international tourism demand and in their tourism prices in the short run. In the long run, developing countries and China's neighbouring countries would tend to be more negatively affected than developed countries.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-13
Number of pages13
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2017


  • Co-movement
  • Economic interdependence
  • Global VAR
  • Impulse response
  • Tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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