Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China

Yongli Cai; Shi Zhao; Yun Niu; Zhihang Peng; Kai Wang; Daihai He; Weiming Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453

Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China

Yongli Cai
, Shi Zhao
, Yun Niu
, Zhihang Peng
, Kai Wang
, Daihai He
, Weiming Wang

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R₀, and prove that R₀ can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R₀ is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.

Original language	English
Article number	110453
Pages (from-to)	1-12
Number of pages	12
Journal	Journal of Theoretical Biology
Volume	508
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453
Publication status	Published - 7 Jan 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Basic reproduction number
Control
Relative infectivity
Uniform persistence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Modelling and Simulation
General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Immunology and Microbiology
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Applied Mathematics

More information

10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453

http://hdl.handle.net/10397/93880

Cite this

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title = "Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China",

abstract = "Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R0, and prove that R0 can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R0 is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.",

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AU - Cai, Yongli

AU - Zhao, Shi

AU - Niu, Yun

AU - Peng, Zhihang

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AU - He, Daihai

AU - Wang, Weiming

N1 - Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the editor and the referees for their helpful comments. Y. Cai and W. Wang were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61672013 , 11601179 and 61772017 , 12071173 ), and the Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (HAP201704). Z. Peng was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11571273), the National S&T Major Project Foundation of China (2017ZX10201101, 2018ZX10715002) and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). K. Wang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11961071) and Program for Tianshan Innovative Research Team of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China (2020D14020). D. He was supported by Hong Kong GRF (Grant No. 15205119). Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

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N2 - Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R0, and prove that R0 can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R0 is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.

AB - Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R0, and prove that R0 can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R0 is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.

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KW - Uniform persistence

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Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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