Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China

Yongli Cai, Shi Zhao, Yun Niu, Zhihang Peng, Kai Wang, Daihai He, Weiming Wang

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)


Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R0, and prove that R0 can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R0 is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.

Original languageEnglish
Article number110453
Pages (from-to)1-12
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Publication statusPublished - 7 Jan 2021


  • Basic reproduction number
  • Control
  • Relative infectivity
  • Uniform persistence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics


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