TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China
AU - Cai, Yongli
AU - Zhao, Shi
AU - Niu, Yun
AU - Peng, Zhihang
AU - Wang, Kai
AU - He, Daihai
AU - Wang, Weiming
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank the editor and the referees for their helpful comments. Y. Cai and W. Wang were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61672013 , 11601179 and 61772017 , 12071173 ), and the Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (HAP201704). Z. Peng was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11571273), the National S&T Major Project Foundation of China (2017ZX10201101, 2018ZX10715002) and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). K. Wang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11961071) and Program for Tianshan Innovative Research Team of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China (2020D14020). D. He was supported by Hong Kong GRF (Grant No. 15205119).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2021/1/7
Y1 - 2021/1/7
N2 - Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R0, and prove that R0 can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R0 is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.
AB - Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, R0, and prove that R0 can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average R0 is 1.13,>1 and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.
KW - Basic reproduction number
KW - Control
KW - Relative infectivity
KW - Uniform persistence
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091638663&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453
DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 32949588
AN - SCOPUS:85091638663
SN - 0022-5193
VL - 508
SP - 1
EP - 12
JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology
JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology
M1 - 110453
ER -
