Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data

Shi Zhao; Peihua Cao; Daozhou Gao; Zian Zhuang; Weiming Wang; Jinjun Ran; Kai Wang; Lin Yang; Mohammad R. Einollahi; Yijun Lou; Daihai He; Maggie H. Wang

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005

Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data

Shi Zhao, Peihua Cao, Daozhou Gao, Zian Zhuang, Weiming Wang, Jinjun Ran, Kai Wang, Lin Yang, Mohammad R. Einollahi, Yijun Lou, Daihai He, Maggie H. Wang

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	189-195
Number of pages	7
Journal	Infectious Disease Modelling
Volume	7
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005
Publication status	Published - Jun 2022

Keywords

COVID-19
Diamond princess ship
Reproduction number
Transmission

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Health Policy
Infectious Diseases
Applied Mathematics

More information

10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005

http://hdl.handle.net/10397/99967

Cite this

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title = "Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data",

abstract = "The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.",

keywords = "COVID-19, Diamond princess ship, Reproduction number, Transmission",

author = "Shi Zhao and Peihua Cao and Daozhou Gao and Zian Zhuang and Weiming Wang and Jinjun Ran and Kai Wang and Lin Yang and Einollahi, {Mohammad R.} and Yijun Lou and Daihai He and Wang, {Maggie H.}",

note = "Funding Information: DH was supported by General Research Fund (Grant Number 15205119) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China and an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. WW was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 61672013 ) and Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (Grant Number HAP201704 ), Huaian, Jiangsu, China. Funding Information: This study was partially supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China ( HKU C7123-20G ). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors",

year = "2022",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005",

language = "English",

volume = "7",

pages = "189--195",

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AU - Zhao, Shi

AU - Cao, Peihua

AU - Gao, Daozhou

AU - Zhuang, Zian

AU - Wang, Weiming

AU - Ran, Jinjun

AU - Wang, Kai

AU - Yang, Lin

AU - Einollahi, Mohammad R.

AU - Lou, Yijun

AU - He, Daihai

AU - Wang, Maggie H.

N1 - Funding Information: DH was supported by General Research Fund (Grant Number 15205119) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China and an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. WW was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 61672013 ) and Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (Grant Number HAP201704 ), Huaian, Jiangsu, China. Funding Information: This study was partially supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China ( HKU C7123-20G ). Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors

PY - 2022/6

Y1 - 2022/6

N2 - The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.

AB - The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.

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Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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