Modeling the impacts of speed limits on uncertain road networks

Xiangdong Xu, Anthony Chen, Hong K. Lo, Chao Yang

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)


In this paper, we examine the network-wide impacts of speed limits on network uncertainty. A multi-dimensional modeling approach is proposed to investigate the impacts of speed limits on link travel time uncertainty profile, travelers' risk-averse route choice decisions, and network flow reallocation under uncertainty. Methodologically, a truncated travel time probability distribution is proposed and its moments are derived to characterize the impact of speed limit on link travel time uncertainty profile. The mean-excess travel time is then adopted as a risk measure to account for travelers' risk-averse route choice adjustment and network flow reallocation induced by speed limits. We find that a speed limit scheme has different impacts on various dimensions of travel time uncertainty. The shift in travel time uncertainty profile of the directly affected links adjusts the traveler's risk-averse route choice decisions, the travel time uncertainty profile of the indirectly affected links, and consequently the network flow reallocation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)66-88
Number of pages23
JournalTransportmetrica A: Transport Science
Issue number1-2
Publication statusPublished - 2 Jan 2018


  • mean-excess travel time
  • network uncertainty
  • route choice
  • Speed limit

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Transportation
  • Engineering(all)

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